If you’re trying to figure out Stanley Cup odds after the Jarry trade, here’s the quick, no-nonsense breakdown.
The December 12, 2025 blockbuster—Pittsburgh flipping Tristan Jarry (9-3-1, .909 SV%, 2.66 GAA) to the Edmonton Oilers for Stuart Skinner, Brett Kulak, and a 2029 2nd—basically melted the NHL futures market overnight.
Sportsbooks didn’t even blink.
- Oilers Stanley Cup odds jumped from +900 → +650,
- Penguins Cup odds crashed from +8000 → +12000.
Totally on-brand, because Edmonton was desperate for help in the crease—Skinner sitting at .889 SV% was rough. Jarry instantly upgrades that situation, which is why analysts like Pierre LeBrun said the move “changes Edmonton’s ceiling.” And yeah, you can feel it — suddenly everyone’s asking whether McDavid and Draisaitl finally have a real shot at ending the drought.
Meanwhile in Pittsburgh… let’s just say the vibes aren’t great. Losing Jarry exposed how thin the Penguins’ depth really is, and the betting markets absolutely roasted them for it.
So if you’re hunting for the freshest NHL Stanley Cup odds (December 2025) or trying to figure out whether the Oilers are legit favorites after the Jarry–Skinner trade, this is your hub. Updated for December 13, morning, with what actually matters for bettors—not the fluff.
Latest NHL Stanley Cup Odds — December 2025
Full Post-Trade Board After the Tristan Jarry Deal
Alright, here’s the updated Stanley Cup odds after the Jarry trade, and yeah—the shift is massive, especially in the West.
Colorado is still chilling at the top at +350, but the Oilers basically speed-ran their way into the top five the second they grabbed Jarry. Books like OddsShark and ESPN BET didn’t even hesitate.
On the flip side, Pittsburgh’s odds absolutely face-planted. When your new tandem is DeSmith + Nedeljkovic, the market is gonna panic. And it did.
Below is the consensus top-15 odds from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM, updated 10 AM ET, December 13. No weird outliers—everyone’s pretty much aligned.
Top 15 Stanley Cup Odds (Pre-Trade vs Post-Trade)
(Plus Pittsburgh’s collapse for comparison)
| Rank | Team | Pre-Trade Odds | Post-Trade Odds | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Avalanche | +350 | +350 | No Change |
| 2 | Carolina Hurricanes | +400 | +400 | No Change |
| 3 | Florida Panthers | +450 | +450 | No Change |
| 4 | Vegas Golden Knights | +700 | +700 | No Change |
| 5 | Edmonton Oilers | +900 | +650 | –250 (Big Jump!) |
| 6 | Dallas Stars | +800 | +800 | No Change |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Lightning | +900 | +900 | No Change |
| 8 | New Jersey Devils | +1000 | +1000 | No Change |
| 9 | Toronto Maple Leafs | +1100 | +1100 | No Change |
| 10 | Winnipeg Jets | +1400 | +1400 | No Change |
| 11 | Los Angeles Kings | +1600 | +1600 | No Change |
| 12 | Washington Capitals | +1800 | +1800 | No Change |
| 13 | Minnesota Wild | +2000 | +2000 | No Change |
| 14 | New York Rangers | +2200 | +2200 | No Change |
| 15 | Ottawa Senators | +2500 | +2500 | No Change |
| — | Pittsburgh Penguins | +8000 | +12000 | +4000 (Big Drop) |
Sources: Consensus from OddsShark, ESPN BET & DraftKings. Odds shift fast—always check live numbers.
???? What This Actually Means
The table makes the impact stupidly obvious:
- Oilers at +650 → basically co-favorites in the Pacific now.
That’s what a real goalie upgrade does. - Penguins at +12000 → the market is yelling “rebuild mode,” not “Metropolitan sleeper.”
Oilers Stanley Cup Odds After Jarry Trade: Why +650 Actually Makes Total Sense (And Where the Betting Value Is)
So here’s the deal: the Oilers Stanley Cup odds jumping to +650 wasn’t sportsbooks being dramatic — it was pure math. Edmonton basically swapped out a struggling goalie (Skinner at .889 SV%) for a steady, proven one in Tristan Jarry (.909 SV%), and the analytics loved it. MoneyPuck simulations immediately bumped their playoff probability from 28% to 42%, which is a massive jump for a single roster move.
And when you already have McDavid at 1.45 Pts/G and Draisaitl at 1.32 Pts/G cooking people on a nightly basis, fixing the crease was the last major weakness. ESPN even called it “solving a multi-season problem in goal,” which is a polite way of saying: Edmonton finally did the thing they should’ve done two years ago.
That’s why they leapfrogged Dallas in most Western futures models.
???? Betting Angle (Where the Value Actually Is)
If you’re looking at whether the Oilers at +650 are worth it after the Jarry–Skinner trade, here’s the quick math:
- Implied probability at +650: 13.3%
- Model projection: ~20%
That’s straight-up +EV (positive expected value), which almost never happens this early in the season for a top contender.
Another sneaky prop bet:
Jarry Over 35 Wins (+150)
His Penguins pace this year projected 38–40 wins with a worse defensive structure. In Edmonton? Yeah, 35+ is absolutely in range.
So if you’re searching did Oilers become favorites after Jarry Skinner trade — pretty much, yeah. They’re now the third-shortest odds behind only Colorado and Carolina.
???? Penguins Cup Odds Drop Jarry: From Fringe Contender to +12000 Longshot
And now the other side of the trade… yeah, it’s rough. The whole “Penguins Cup odds drop Jarry” situation is exactly what it sounds like: a freefall. Books blasted Pittsburgh all the way out to +12000, and it wasn’t because Skinner is bad — it’s because losing your hottest and most stable goalie instantly nukes your floor.
Even worse?
Their goaltending depth with DeSmith (.902 SV%) now grades as bottom-10 in The Athletic’s models, which is the fastest way to torch your credibility in the playoff race. Their simulated postseason odds collapsed from 18% → 8%, which basically screams: “This team needs a miracle or a McDavid-tier heater to get back in it.”
Dubas did gain cap room by moving Jarry’s $5.375M hit, and sure, that helps pivot toward younger pieces… but as Bleacher Report put it, it feels a lot like a “playoff push surrender.” Hard to argue with that when the projections tank this fast.
???? Betting Angle (Honestly? Fade City)
If you’re betting this team right now:
- Fade Penguins outright — +12000 isn’t “value,” it’s “danger.”
- The smarter play is Under 82.5 Points (-110).
Models have them landing around 78–80 points max, and that’s with everything going right.
For people scanning NHL Stanley Cup odds December 2025, the fallout actually opens up some sneaky Metropolitan angles — like the Rangers at +2200 to win the division, which now looks a lot more live with Pittsburgh essentially bowing out.
Broader Jarry Trade Impact on Cup Odds: League-Wide Winners, Losers & Shockwaves
The Jarry trade impact on Cup odds didn’t just hit Edmonton and Pittsburgh — it sent aftershocks straight through the entire NHL futures market. Some teams climbed, some flatlined, and a few quietly lost ground even though they weren’t involved at all.
Out West, Minnesota (+2000) held steady, but the real power shift is at the top: Colorado’s +350 grip on the conference actually tightened now that Edmonton isn’t stumbling in net. Books moved the Avs to -150 to win the Central, which is basically a “come beat us if you can” message.
In the East, Tampa (+900) and Florida (+450) didn’t budge, but Washington’s +1800 got a weird mini-boost thanks to some loose Brett Kulak trade chatter—which insiders say is… nothing. MoneyPuck’s league-wide sims show 12 teams saw their Cup probabilities shift anywhere from 2% to 5%, which is massive for a single-player move.
???? Winners
- Oilers — The obvious big winners. A +250 line move doesn’t happen unless the market thinks the team just fixed a fatal flaw.
- Vegas Golden Knights — This indirectly helps them; they love seeing another elite goalie enter the conference because it keeps pressure off their own inconsistent crease. Plus, the “defensive depth envy” is real.
- Toronto Maple Leafs — The Jarry-Skinner deal sets a precedent for flipping a goalie at high value… something Toronto might explore if things spiral.
???? Losers
- Penguins — A +4000 odds drop is one of the harshest freefalls of the season.
- St. Louis Blues — Went +2800 → +4000 as the Central becomes a murder pit behind Colorado.
- Anaheim Ducks — Sitting at +5000, and watching everyone else make moves while they stand still isn’t helping perception.
???? Neutrals
- Carolina Hurricanes — At +400, their elite core and structured system literally do not care about goalie chaos elsewhere. They stay locked in.
???? Final Take: Why This Trade Matters League-Wide
When you break down the Jarry trade impact on Cup odds, one theme screams loudest: goaltending still rules the NHL. Seven of the last ten Stanley Cup champions had top-5 goaltending tandems, and this deal is just another reminder that fixing your crease can change your entire season overnight.
Final Thoughts: Best Bets on Stanley Cup Odds After Jarry Trade
The Stanley Cup odds after Jarry trade paint a clearer playoff picture: Oilers reloaded for a run, Penguins reloading for tomorrow. With Oilers Stanley Cup odds at +650, they’re the play for risk-takers—pair with Avalanche parlay at +1500 combined. Track NHL Stanley Cup odds December 2025 live, as Jarry’s Oilers debut Tuesday could spark another move.
What’s your take on did Oilers favorites after Jarry Skinner trade? Drop predictions below or share on X with #JarryTradeOdds. For more futures breakdowns, bookmark us—optimized for your search! (Odds via DraftKings; gamble responsibly, 21+.)